Oscar-nominees online share-of-voice reflects bookies odds
By Mike Hanlon
March 4, 2010
With the Academy Awards just days away, movie fans online are increasingly discussing the ten nominees for best picture along with the five actors and five actresses nominated in a lead role, according to Nielsen Research. Nielsen spiders, records and monitors most open-to-web blogs, forums, groups and a whole range of social media to see which subjects command share-of-voice and makes this massive database available to companies as part of its suite of research offerings – interestingly, though the betting odds available from bookmakers doesn’t quite mirror the share-of-voice, there’s clearly a high correlation.
A film’s performance at the Oscars is a key variable in the incredibly complex and expensive marketing campaigns of the film studios and even a nomination clearly sets the agenda for filmgoers and guarantees prominence.
Just how accurate on-line buzz is in predicting the winners is hard to ascertain given that Nielen’s buzzmetrics are still so new, but by comparing the best odds available from bookmakers on the web for each of the nominees for each category, with the share-of-voice as measured by Niselsen, clearly there’s a strong correlation.
In the case of best actress and best actor, Nielsen’s mybuzzmetrics picked the bookies favourites (Sandra Bullock for “The Blind Side” and Jeff Bridges for “Crazy Heart”), though Nielsen’s ratings indicate the film Avatar is commanding more mindshare than bookies favourite “The Hurt Locker” – perhaps because of Avatar’s groundbreaking and hence quite literally “remarkable” technology.
The array of betting available on all globally significant events is always worth a look – this year it seems that Avatar is almost certain to take home a swag of Oscars according to the bookies which have the film at ridiculous “odds on” to win four or more statues, and you can bet on everything from whether God will be mentioned in acceptance speeches, whether a recipient will cry, and even who will design the winner’s dress.
Can Nielsen’s buzz meter predict a dark horse (an outsider who gets up to win at long odds)? Maybe! In the Best Actress category, Carey Mulligan’s share of voice is way better than her long odds suggest it should be.
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