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Oscar-nominees online share-of-voice reflects bookies odds

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March 4, 2010

Note the odds on the right hand side of the table

Note the odds on the right hand side of the table

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With the Academy Awards just days away, movie fans online are increasingly discussing the ten nominees for best picture along with the five actors and five actresses nominated in a lead role, according to Nielsen Research. Nielsen spiders, records and monitors most open-to-web blogs, forums, groups and a whole range of social media to see which subjects command share-of-voice and makes this massive database available to companies as part of its suite of research offerings – interestingly, though the betting odds available from bookmakers doesn’t quite mirror the share-of-voice, there’s clearly a high correlation.

A film’s performance at the Oscars is a key variable in the incredibly complex and expensive marketing campaigns of the film studios and even a nomination clearly sets the agenda for filmgoers and guarantees prominence.

Just how accurate on-line buzz is in predicting the winners is hard to ascertain given that Nielen’s buzzmetrics are still so new, but by comparing the best odds available from bookmakers on the web for each of the nominees for each category, with the share-of-voice as measured by Niselsen, clearly there’s a strong correlation.

In the case of best actress and best actor, Nielsen’s mybuzzmetrics picked the bookies favourites (Sandra Bullock for “The Blind Side” and Jeff Bridges for “Crazy Heart”), though Nielsen’s ratings indicate the film Avatar is commanding more mindshare than bookies favourite “The Hurt Locker” – perhaps because of Avatar’s groundbreaking and hence quite literally “remarkable” technology.

The array of betting available on all globally significant events is always worth a look – this year it seems that Avatar is almost certain to take home a swag of Oscars according to the bookies which have the film at ridiculous “odds on” to win four or more statues, and you can bet on everything from whether God will be mentioned in acceptance speeches, whether a recipient will cry, and even who will design the winner’s dress.

Can Nielsen’s buzz meter predict a dark horse (an outsider who gets up to win at long odds)? Maybe! In the Best Actress category, Carey Mulligan’s share of voice is way better than her long odds suggest it should be.

Our big tip!

Be kind to your mother!

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About the Author
Mike Hanlon Mike grew up thinking he would become a mathematician, accidentally started motorcycle racing, got a job writing road tests for a motorcycle magazine while at university, and became a writer. As a travelling photojournalist during his early career, his work was published in a dozen languages across 20+ countries. He went on to edit or manage over 50 print publications, with target audiences ranging from pensioners to plumbers, many different sports, many car and motorcycle magazines, with many more in the fields of communication - narrow subject magazines on topics such as advertising, marketing, visual communications, design, presentation and direct marketing. Then came the internet and Mike managed internet projects for Australia's largest multimedia company, Telstra.com.au (Australia's largest Telco), Seek.com.au (Australia's largest employment site), top100.com.au, hitwise.com, and a dozen other internet start-ups before founding Gizmag in 2002. Now he writes and thinks. All articles by Mike Hanlon
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