2009 World Superbike Championship: season preview and predictions

Yamaha R1s finished second and third in the 2008 WSBK championship, with Corser and Haga at the helm. Two outstanding riders, indeed, but the bike itself has stood since 2007 as the techno-warship of the Japanese contingent. Fly-by-wire throttle actuation was unique to the Yamaha until the underdone Aprilia made its debut this year - and it's still the only bike on the grid with variable length intake stacks. This year's R1 carries forward both these features and adds a crossplane crankshaft that creates a slightly uneven firing order and might make it act a bit more like a V4 than an inline 4. From a techie standpoint, this is a fascinating bike.

Only three Yamahas will take to the grid this year (as opposed to 5 last year), and you can bet that one of them will be getting the bulk of the factory attention. In the AMA Superbike paddock, Australia's Mat Mladin was utterly, untouchably dominant from 2000 until 2005. Clearly a world-class rider, Mladin had no ambitions beyond pulverizing the American competition and he seemed invulnerable at the top. That was, until Texan Ben Spies turned up as his Suzuki teammate. Spies astonished everyone by wrestling the 2006 title from a furious Mladin, then backed it up by snatching the 2007 and 2008 titles as well in an absolute war with his teammate. To give you an idea of how far ahead of the pack these two guys are, either Mladin or Spies won EVERY race in 2008, the other usually coming in second. Spies missed out on a MotoGP ride after a couple of wildcard appearances (and top ten finishes) on a Suzuki - then signed up with Yamaha for this year's WSBK title assault, ending the most heated AMA rivalry in decades. Spies will make an instant impact in World Supers, and Mladin will run away again in AMA, perhaps wondering what might have been if he'd had a shot on the world stage.

Britain's Tom Sykes will ride beside Spies in the factory team, a youngster fresh from BSB. In his two superbike seasons he's finished 6th and 4th, and has had a couple of encouraging home-track wildcard WSBK appearances. He's not a threat for this season but a young gun to watch. The final Yamaha rider is David Checa on the GMT team. Nice guy, but he doesn't have his brother Carlos' speed. Both Sykes and Spies shone at the Portimao test, coming in second and fourth sandwiched by Ducatis in first and third. It's a small contingent from Yamaha in 2009, but a strong one.

So who's it gonna be?

The field is so jumbled-up this year that even the bookies haven't set their odds. So many new riders, bike swaps, youngsters and new bikes - plus the retirement of a safe-bet title contender in Bayliss - make it a hard one to pick. But we don't have money riding on it, so we'll have a go.

Of the old guard, Haga, Checa, Corser and Neukirchner have shown championship consistency and the ability to take race wins. Biaggi and Nakano would be impact players on any other bike but the fledgeling Aprilia. Corser's year can probably likewise be written off as a development push for BMW, and Neukirchner and Checa, on their respective Suzuki and Honda rides, might simply not have the bikes to compete with Ducati and Yamaha week in, week out. So that leaves do-or-die Nori Haga as the better bet on his 1098R.

Of the new blood, Haslam and Rea are probably ready to give this season a proper crack, but again, the question will be whether the CBR is really capable of consistent wins. The bike was all-new in 2008, didn't achieve big results and it's not changing for 2009. It's more likely that Shakey Byrne and Ben Spies, both championship winners in tough conditions, and both on competitive bikes, will make a grab for the silverware in 2009.

So it comes down to Haga vs. Byrne vs. Spies, Japan vs. England vs. America. It's reasonable to expect that all three will take race wins through the season, and that they'll deliver some ground-shaking entertainment at the front of the pack. They're hard to split from that point. Perhaps Byrne will suffer from running a privateer Ducati next to Haga's factory bike. Perhaps Spies will benefit from the fact that there's only three Yamahas on the grid, while Ducati are spreading their efforts among seven quality riders.

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